the oex and how I play it

At All experts I was asked how I woul play this oct 08 market using an index option

here is my answer


In my opinion the oex and other index options are like playing poker.

so lets answer the question based on texas holdem poker

you have 3 of a kind and there is a possible straight on the board

the pot is 100

is it worth 8 bucks or 16 bucks to see if you can bully the person playing for the straight

out of the hand

now for the market

I recently bought oex options

I made a value bet

I bought three 600 buck jan oex

and I am planning to be out in nov no matter what

I spent 300 a contract on 3 contracts

they are already worth 400

the dow at 10,000 will have the oex at around 520 best case

oex is at approx 477 on 10/14

now the 580 oex jan option the oebap,is selling for 500

so a 20 buck move in the oex is gonna give me 100 more in profit

based on 5 -10 oex points per 100 dow points

I see 9900 on the dow as being 497-505 on the oex

that will be my out point, most likely

the jan oex call is oebap for the 580 strike

and oeyat for the jan 600

I suggest you base your buy on 20% max of your earned profit no more

I only spent 10% as ITS A GAMBLE

look at the oex jan 540-580 as each bid ask

will tell you what you can make

IE

the 540 is say 1000 bid and the 560 asks 850

so if you get a 20 buck move in the oex or 400 dow points min

your 850 buy becomes a 1k sell or 150 per contract profit

ie 18%

THIS IS HOW I VALUE THE OEX

Its your choice how you play

good luck

GlobalTestMarket SURVEY SCAM

This is my experience with global test mareting.

I feel they are a scam due to the fact that they do not follow up their surveys.

You are supposed to be paid 5 points if you dont qualify for a survey.

this only happens half the time.

you can get completely through a survey and be doing the final questions about age race and income

and the survey will switch to the do not qualify page

and you get only 5 points if that

as global may credit you for the 50 points you were owed. and then a week later they will pull the points.

this is exactly what happened to me on 5 oct 08 and why I refuse to deal with them anymore


We’ve got a new chance for you to earn 50 Market Points!! Please check out our new survey as soon as you can!!
Wednesday, October 1, 2008 8:24 PM


charles weber Account #: 9967819 MarketPoints Balance: 1090

Dear Mr. charles weber,

We are currently conducting a new and entertaining study of which your participation is requested. This survey will only be open until this Wednesday as possible for a chance to earn 50 Market Points!!!
Survey Details
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MarketPoints for this study: 121102
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Or copy the following into your browser to go directly to the survey:
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A new survey from GlobalTestMarket
Sunday, October 5, 2008 3:38 PM
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charles weber » Account #9967819 » MarketPoints: 1040

GlobalTestMarket is looking for your opinion.

A new survey is available
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MarketPoints for survey: 5 -50
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You can also access the survey by copying the following URL into your browser:
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these people will rip you off for points whenever they can

if you deal with them be ready to file BBB complaints


A FINAL NOTE

IT WAS ONLY AFTER I WROTE THIS POST AND FILED ANOTHER BBB COMPLAINT

DID SARAH CANNING agree to pay me the 1090 points I am owed ON 10/7/08

for what its worth

1 point is only worth 5 cents

DON'T ever believe that you will make 300 an hour for doing surveys

John mccain the big lie

Recently I heard an add for John Mc Cain in Colorado. He said he does not want big government and pork . Its a fact that he coauthored a Deruglation of the banking industry.that caused this current need to bail out wall street.

REPUBLICANS dont want government oversight or big government, but they sure want government bailout when their greedy corporate bankers screw up.

trading Ibm for profit using leap calls and puts

Ok the 10th of sept came and went and I bm followed trend and was up on the 10th.

I bought Ibm leap puts on 9/10 for 730 a contract and was able to sell them yesterday on 9/16

at 850 a contract for an approx 18% return.

We are now looking for a down point of 108-110 in my opinion.


be aware ibm may be at bottom for this year only as the primarys are 4 oct and the election is early nov

This may cause the repubs to have their rich backers run up the market,so they can claim a short term gain and brag how great they run the country. NOTTTT.

ibm hit 115 and 113

hmmm ok so my range of 105-115 to buy has been hit

but its still way to early to buy

unless the bush crew is trying to make an early run up

to look good for the election NOTTTTTTTT

if its still in my range by option expiration week

the week of the 3rd friday of the month

I will be buying

Ibm will it follow the tradition trend

I have been watching Ibm for several years. I have found a consistant trend of this stock dropping 10-15% between aug 5 to sept 30.

since Ibm topped at 129-130 in early august and its down to 122-123 now.

the indicators are that it will follow trend/\.

the second part of the trend is to watch Ibm go up 10% or more between 15 oct to 20 nov.

NOW how do you play this trend on a 100 buck stock

when you only have say 2500 total to spend.

I buy a leap call good till jan 2010

that stock symbol is wibah the 140 strike call good till jan 2010.

I expect to buy around 800 a contract

with 1bm around 111 a share.

Now the difference between me and other people is I will get out when Ibm is 5 bucks higher.

This stock option will increase in value at a rate of 30 cents for every dollar Ibm goes up.

That means a 5 buck uptrend will pay 150 return on an 800 investment

If you spend 2500 you bought 3 contracts.

so you made 450 gross and 420 net if you use a discount broker.

so you make better than 15% in 30 days or less.

thats a decent profit to me.

good luck

Stock Trading ,Trading Agressively to win

Trading stocks aggressively does not mean pushing to the limit or trading every day.

YOU could simply track a trend of a stock and play it accordingly.

I have done this with Ibm and Rgr for years.

Recently, there was a nice drop in the dow from June to July.

I have found this trend with regularity, and you would too if you had tracked the Dow year to year as I have done.

With Ibm I bought the leap put in june wibmb a jan 2010 110 strike stock option.

when Ibm was around 125 I paid around 900 a contract.

at 118 the option was worth around 1000 a contract.

I got out and waited for the bottom.

Then I bought the wibah jan 2010 leap call for about 900 and sold again for about 1000, when Ibm hit 123

At the same time rgr went down to 6.00 a share and I bought 1000 shares.

my sell order was entered for 6.25cents and out, good till cancel.

even though rgr went up to 7.80, IT DID NOT MATTER.

I made my 25cents or 250 gross 220 net again for the 12th time since jan 08.

ie I was up 2700 on a 6-7k investment. or almost 45%. Thats both very agressive as well as conservative and safe, to me.

A day after rgr hit 7.80 it had a 2 buck tank and went to 5.61. And boy was I kicking myself as I was gonna short 500 shares.

but instead I bought my 1000 shares at 579 and got out at 5.99.

and when she pulled back to 5.72, two days later,I bought again and got out 2 days after for 5.97

As of 8/1/08 rgr is at 6 and I am up another 400 and waiting for the next traditional dow drop from mid aug throug late sept.

track my trends back 10 years. SEE IF YOU SEE WHAT I DO.

Good Luck