the oex and how I play it

At All experts I was asked how I woul play this oct 08 market using an index option

here is my answer


In my opinion the oex and other index options are like playing poker.

so lets answer the question based on texas holdem poker

you have 3 of a kind and there is a possible straight on the board

the pot is 100

is it worth 8 bucks or 16 bucks to see if you can bully the person playing for the straight

out of the hand

now for the market

I recently bought oex options

I made a value bet

I bought three 600 buck jan oex

and I am planning to be out in nov no matter what

I spent 300 a contract on 3 contracts

they are already worth 400

the dow at 10,000 will have the oex at around 520 best case

oex is at approx 477 on 10/14

now the 580 oex jan option the oebap,is selling for 500

so a 20 buck move in the oex is gonna give me 100 more in profit

based on 5 -10 oex points per 100 dow points

I see 9900 on the dow as being 497-505 on the oex

that will be my out point, most likely

the jan oex call is oebap for the 580 strike

and oeyat for the jan 600

I suggest you base your buy on 20% max of your earned profit no more

I only spent 10% as ITS A GAMBLE

look at the oex jan 540-580 as each bid ask

will tell you what you can make

IE

the 540 is say 1000 bid and the 560 asks 850

so if you get a 20 buck move in the oex or 400 dow points min

your 850 buy becomes a 1k sell or 150 per contract profit

ie 18%

THIS IS HOW I VALUE THE OEX

Its your choice how you play

good luck